The 2026 NFL prospects have been able to put plenty on film this previous college football season, and Fernando Mendoza has increased above the pack after leading Indiana to their first Championship game.

In a surprising turn of events, forecasted No. 2 quarterback Dante Moore decided to return to Oregon for his senior year.

Moore has actually been buffooned to the New York Jets with the 2nd general pick for a while now, and his announcement leaves the Jets in limbo.

Here's a take a look at the chances to go No. 1 total after his announcement:

2026 NFL Draft No. 1 Overall Pick Odds

Fernando Mendoza

-20000

Arvell Reese

David Bailey

+8000

Ty Simpson

+10000

Caleb Downs

Rueben Bain Jr.

+12500

Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza (-20000) is the clear preferred to be selected first overall in the 2026 NFL Draft with about 4 months. Moore's statement dropped Mendoza's odds from -1000, all the method to -20000.

The Cal-transfer has changed Indiana's team from a solid, defensive-minded system in 2015 to a powerhouse on both sides of the ball. Mendoza has an NFL develop, standing at 6'5, and weighing 225 pounds.

He's completed 71.5% of his passes for 2,980 yards, 33 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions, while leading the Hoosiers to a 13-0 record, a Big Ten Championship, the Championship game, and the No. 1 seed entering the playoff.

After Moore's announcement, Arvell Reese jumped up to No. 2 at +8000. The Buckeyes linebacker, is an alien that can play off-the-ball linebacker or line up on the edge and hurry the QB.

He's extremely strong, fast, and agile and was popping up all over the tape through the beginning portions of the season, however hasn't been as efficient in the back half.

Texas Tech's David Bailey's chances have actually likewise jumped after a piece de resistance at the NFL Combine.

The pass rush stands 6' 3" high, and 250 lbs. in 2025 he racked up 14.5 sacks and 3 required fumbles, and has actually gone beyond Rueben Bain Jr who has actually been docked by scouts for having much shorter arms than traditional elite pass rushers.

Alabama's Simpson (+10000) is the second QB on this list after bring a Crimson Tide offense that can hardly run the ball. The junior has 3,268 passing lawns and 26 touchdowns while throwing 5 choices.

Simpson is smooth and precise with a fast throwing movement that ought to translate well to the NFL.

Ohio State's safety Caleb Downs (+12500) is a forecasted top-ten pick due to his football IQ and do-it-all playstyle where he can cover on the back-end, and come near lay the boom on a running back like a linebacker.

Another protective gamer with +125000 chances to go top is Miami's protective end Rueben Bain Jr. The Hurricane is 6'3, 275 lbs and has actually taped 4.5 sacks and 7.5 deals with for loss while requiring a fumble and getting an interception and has actually dominated in the playoffs.

Arch Manning was the preseason odds-on favorite to go No. 1, however after a slower year than anticipated he plans to go back to Texas for another season.

Miami (FL) vs. Indiana: 2026 National Championship Preview.